The Economist: Washington fears three nuclear conflicts

The US government is desperate for the possibility of stopping Russia, North Korea and China at the same time, writes The Economist, citing unnamed US officials.

The Pentagon is modeling possible scenarios of Russia attacking a NATO country, drawing America to the defense of Europe, then China using Washington's distraction to invade Taiwan, while North Korea attacks South Korea. In this regard, the US President Joe Biden's administration has begun preparations to increase the nuclear forces, which are ready after "decades of deep cuts".

Expansion could begin in 2026 due to the expiration of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (which expires in February).

"If the president ... decides that we need to increase the number of forces on alert, we want to implement that decision relatively quickly," a senior US military official said. But how far U.S. officials go on the issue depends on who wins the November presidential election — Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump. It is expected that Harris, unlike Trump, will try to preserve restrictions on nuclear weapons.