Relations between Moscow and Ankara are on the brink of a new crisis: as a sign of this, the bitter words of Russian leader Vladimir Putin against Turkey and the "address" of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can be cited. In June, Putin criticized Ankara for providing military aid to Kiev at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and expressed displeasure that Erdogan's government was becoming more "cozy" with Western financial institutions.

Elections, sanctions and weapons

Moscow hoped that Recep Tayyip Erdogan would take friendly steps towards it in return for the Kremlin's goodwill after he regained the presidency of Turkey. However, economic problems are pushing Turkey closer to the US and the European Union (EU). This was reported by the experts of the American " Carnegie " scientific research center.

Relations between Moscow and Ankara are on the brink of a new crisis: as a sign of this, the bitter words of Russian leader Vladimir Putin against Turkey and the "address" of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can be cited. In June, Putin criticized Ankara for providing military aid to Kiev at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and expressed displeasure that Erdogan's government was becoming more "cozy" with Western financial institutions.

Officials in Ankara have sidestepped the criticism, but what prompted Putin to escalate his rhetoric against one of his closest allies, including threats to cut Russian natural gas and wheat supplies to Turkey, has drawn much attention. If we add to this Putin's canceled trip to Turkey, the decrease in the volume of mutual trade, and Ankara's rapprochement with the United States on the issue of arms supplies, it is not difficult to notice the cooling of the relations between the two countries.

Something went wrong

According to analysts, before the presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey in May 2023, the Kremlin bet on Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party. Moscow provided Ankara with $20 billion for the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, and also agreed to delay payments by the Turks for natural gas delivered in 2022.

At that time, it is clear that the Russian leadership hoped that after Erdogan's re-election, he would take friendly steps in response. However, Ankara decided to approach the US and the EU against the background of the country's difficult economic situation. Erdogan frequently called on Brussels to restart EU accession talks. Also in late January, Ankara stopped blocking Sweden's application to join NATO after the United States lifted its ban on the supply of modernized F-16 fighter jets.

Thus, Ankara finally abandoned the idea of buying Su-35 and Su-57 fighter jets from Moscow as an alternative to the F-16. In addition, Ankara and Washington intensified negotiations on the Turkish return to the F-35 fighter jet program, provided that the Turkish side abandons the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems.

New breakthrough agreements were expected from Erdogan's visit to Washington. It was originally scheduled for May 9, but was postponed indefinitely at the last minute for unknown reasons. The Turkish Foreign Ministry used the simplified formula of continuing "high-level dialogue" in preparation for the visit.

Discussions about Erdogan's trip to the US have emerged at the same time as reports of Putin's expected visit to Turkey. The visit was initially planned for February, and then for the period after the presidential elections in the Russian Federation (March 15-17) or the municipal elections in Turkey (March 31). But still no exact time has been set.

Conflicts in Ukraine

Ankara's position on the war in Ukraine remains the most important factor provoking the Kremlin.

"We recognize the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and we want the conflict to end on this basis," said the statement of the Turkish Foreign Ministry on the occasion of the second anniversary of the start of the war in Ukraine.

This formula is clearly not to the taste of the Kremlin. Although Moscow does not pay attention to such relations of Ankara, it cannot tolerate the supply of weapons to Kiev.

For example, at the beginning of February, it became known that the Turkish defense company "Baykar" started the construction of a factory for the production of TB2 or TB3 drones in Kiev region. About 500 people work in the enterprise.

Russian officials have so far been very cautious on this matter. However, Putin's harsh words at SPXIF showed Moscow's anger at Ankara's policies.