17.05.2025 10:50
36
Why didn't Putin come to the talks in Istanbul?
Peace talks hosted by Turkey on May 15, 2025 to end the Russia-Ukraine war have attracted international attention. However, neither Russian President Vladimir Putin nor US President Donald Trump attended the summit. This situation has cast a shadow over hopes in this regard. This important summit, which was planned to be held with the participation of Turkey and the US, has turned into a delegation-level meeting without the participation of leaders. So why were these talks held without leaders, and what does Putin's decision not to come to Turkey mean?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has had a profound impact on the global security environment. The Russian occupation of large parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia regions, along with the annexation of Crimea in 2014, has resulted in the loss of control over approximately one-fifth of Ukraine's territory. The war has displaced millions of people, killed tens of thousands of soldiers, and caused energy and food crises.
As noted, the Istanbul talks in March 2022 were one of the closest the parties came to peace, but the process stalled due to the massacre of civilians in Bucha and allegations of Western countries opposing the agreement.
In the United States, peace talks have gained new momentum after Donald Trump was re-elected as president. During the campaign, Trump claimed that he could end the war "in 24 hours," cast Ukraine's chances of joining NATO as low, and said Crimea could remain in Russia. On the Russian side, Putin proposed on May 11 to hold unconditional talks in Turkey on May 15 to resume the 2022 Istanbul talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded positively to the invitation and expressed his readiness to meet Putin directly.
The Istanbul talks had raised high hopes among the world community, but uncertainty over the leaders' participation has overshadowed the summit. Zelensky met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara ahead of the talks and said he would participate in the talks directly if Putin came to Istanbul. However, the Kremlin announced at the last moment that Putin would not attend. Instead, a delegation led by adviser Vladimir Medinsky, who also participated in the 2022 talks, was sent. Trump, who had previously signaled that "if Putin goes, I'll go," also decided not to come to Istanbul at the last minute due to a trip to the Middle East and changes in his schedule. The United States was represented in his place by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special representatives Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg.
Putin's decision not to come to Istanbul is due to both strategic and symbolic reasons. Some analysts say that Putin has not visited any NATO country since the start of the Ukraine war, and therefore has not come to Turkey. Putin's last visit to Turkey was in connection with the opening of the TurkStream natural gas pipeline in January 2020. Since then, and especially after the 2022 invasion, Putin's absence from NATO member states has been seen as a sign of strained relations with the West. Ukrainian officials also point to Putin's absence as evidence that "Russia does not intend to end the war." Ukrainian presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak said: "Putin is the person who makes all the decisions in Russia. His absence is a sign that he is not ready to negotiate."
On the other hand, Ukrainian analysts believe that by choosing Istanbul, Putin was referring to the 2022 talks, when he wanted to raise the agreement that had been "thrown into the trash can" as a topic for negotiations again, taking into account Russia's current territorial gains.
The Kremlin sent a low-level delegation to the talks, signaling that "we have not changed our position from 2022." This means that Russia will continue to demand recognition of control over Donbass, Ukraine's declaration of neutrality, and reduction of its military.
Trump's decision not to attend Istanbul was due to both logistical and diplomatic reasons. During his Middle East tour of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Trump had said, "If there's a way to stop the war, I'll go to Turkey," but canceled the plan due to his tight schedule and Putin's absence. While U.S. officials have described Rubio's presence in Trump's place as a sign of the importance the United States attaches to the talks, Ukrainians have argued that Trump's personal presence could put more pressure on Putin. Zelensky invited Trump, saying, "His presence will be an incentive for Putin to come."
Zelensky had called for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire before the talks, but Russia rejected the offer. While Ukraine has made a comprehensive ceasefire a condition for the start of peace talks, Russia has made its demands, such as the status of Donbass and other annexed territories, a subject of negotiation. The talks have also discussed limited issues, such as the exchange of prisoners of war.
However, the absence of Putin and Trump has reduced the talks to a symbolic meeting. The Ukrainian side has described Putin's low-level delegation as "a sign that he is not serious about diplomacy." The Russian side, however, has expressed doubts about the Ukrainians' participation in the talks, saying, "We do not know how the negotiations will develop."
The summit has sparked both hope and caution in the international community. The European Union and the United States have supported the talks, but have said sanctions against Russia will remain in place. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and other European leaders have expressed their support for Zelensky. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has stressed the importance of the talks for European security. However, some analysts believe that Putin's choice of Istanbul reflects a strategy to reassert Russia's demands in 2022. Others say that Trump's absence from the talks could cast doubt on U.S. support for Ukraine.
The leaders' failure to arrive in Istanbul on May 15, 2025, limited the outcome of the negotiations. Putin's policy of not traveling to NATO countries and Trump's change of agenda further complicated the peace process.
The continuation of the negotiations will depend on the parties taking concrete steps towards a ceasefire. Zelensky's demand to "meet Putin directly" and Russia's "negotiation on its own terms" approach make it difficult to reach an agreement in the near term.
However, it is clear that stronger international pressure and leadership-level engagement are needed to end the Ukraine-Russia war.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has had a profound impact on the global security environment. The Russian occupation of large parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia regions, along with the annexation of Crimea in 2014, has resulted in the loss of control over approximately one-fifth of Ukraine's territory. The war has displaced millions of people, killed tens of thousands of soldiers, and caused energy and food crises.
As noted, the Istanbul talks in March 2022 were one of the closest the parties came to peace, but the process stalled due to the massacre of civilians in Bucha and allegations of Western countries opposing the agreement.
In the United States, peace talks have gained new momentum after Donald Trump was re-elected as president. During the campaign, Trump claimed that he could end the war "in 24 hours," cast Ukraine's chances of joining NATO as low, and said Crimea could remain in Russia. On the Russian side, Putin proposed on May 11 to hold unconditional talks in Turkey on May 15 to resume the 2022 Istanbul talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded positively to the invitation and expressed his readiness to meet Putin directly.
The Istanbul talks had raised high hopes among the world community, but uncertainty over the leaders' participation has overshadowed the summit. Zelensky met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara ahead of the talks and said he would participate in the talks directly if Putin came to Istanbul. However, the Kremlin announced at the last moment that Putin would not attend. Instead, a delegation led by adviser Vladimir Medinsky, who also participated in the 2022 talks, was sent. Trump, who had previously signaled that "if Putin goes, I'll go," also decided not to come to Istanbul at the last minute due to a trip to the Middle East and changes in his schedule. The United States was represented in his place by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special representatives Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg.
Putin's decision not to come to Istanbul is due to both strategic and symbolic reasons. Some analysts say that Putin has not visited any NATO country since the start of the Ukraine war, and therefore has not come to Turkey. Putin's last visit to Turkey was in connection with the opening of the TurkStream natural gas pipeline in January 2020. Since then, and especially after the 2022 invasion, Putin's absence from NATO member states has been seen as a sign of strained relations with the West. Ukrainian officials also point to Putin's absence as evidence that "Russia does not intend to end the war." Ukrainian presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak said: "Putin is the person who makes all the decisions in Russia. His absence is a sign that he is not ready to negotiate."
On the other hand, Ukrainian analysts believe that by choosing Istanbul, Putin was referring to the 2022 talks, when he wanted to raise the agreement that had been "thrown into the trash can" as a topic for negotiations again, taking into account Russia's current territorial gains.
The Kremlin sent a low-level delegation to the talks, signaling that "we have not changed our position from 2022." This means that Russia will continue to demand recognition of control over Donbass, Ukraine's declaration of neutrality, and reduction of its military.
Trump's decision not to attend Istanbul was due to both logistical and diplomatic reasons. During his Middle East tour of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Trump had said, "If there's a way to stop the war, I'll go to Turkey," but canceled the plan due to his tight schedule and Putin's absence. While U.S. officials have described Rubio's presence in Trump's place as a sign of the importance the United States attaches to the talks, Ukrainians have argued that Trump's personal presence could put more pressure on Putin. Zelensky invited Trump, saying, "His presence will be an incentive for Putin to come."
Zelensky had called for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire before the talks, but Russia rejected the offer. While Ukraine has made a comprehensive ceasefire a condition for the start of peace talks, Russia has made its demands, such as the status of Donbass and other annexed territories, a subject of negotiation. The talks have also discussed limited issues, such as the exchange of prisoners of war.
However, the absence of Putin and Trump has reduced the talks to a symbolic meeting. The Ukrainian side has described Putin's low-level delegation as "a sign that he is not serious about diplomacy." The Russian side, however, has expressed doubts about the Ukrainians' participation in the talks, saying, "We do not know how the negotiations will develop."
The summit has sparked both hope and caution in the international community. The European Union and the United States have supported the talks, but have said sanctions against Russia will remain in place. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and other European leaders have expressed their support for Zelensky. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has stressed the importance of the talks for European security. However, some analysts believe that Putin's choice of Istanbul reflects a strategy to reassert Russia's demands in 2022. Others say that Trump's absence from the talks could cast doubt on U.S. support for Ukraine.
The leaders' failure to arrive in Istanbul on May 15, 2025, limited the outcome of the negotiations. Putin's policy of not traveling to NATO countries and Trump's change of agenda further complicated the peace process.
The continuation of the negotiations will depend on the parties taking concrete steps towards a ceasefire. Zelensky's demand to "meet Putin directly" and Russia's "negotiation on its own terms" approach make it difficult to reach an agreement in the near term.
However, it is clear that stronger international pressure and leadership-level engagement are needed to end the Ukraine-Russia war.