30.04.2025 17:25
165
The world order and balance of power are changing. What does this mean?
Historically, the likelihood of war increases when there is a significant shift in the balance of power. This is the situation the world is currently in.
The present and near future are often discussed in terms of the changing balance of power in the world. At the same time, the possibility of a major war is increasingly being mentioned.
While there have been many significant shifts in the world order and balance of power throughout history, the current situation is unprecedented. For the first time, a major shift in the balance of power could occur in an environment where weapons of mass destruction with the power to destroy the entire world exist.
Therefore, if the expected evolution in the balance of power reaches a decisive stage, it will be extremely important to prevent the possibility of war, especially a large and destructive war, by controlling and managing the situation.
Now, to look deeper into this issue, we need to answer a number of questions...
There are significant changes in the balance of power in the world. Is there a possibility of war in these circumstances?
At such times, the likelihood of major war increases as major rivals seek to accelerate or halt shifts in the balance of power. Tensions and suspicions increase dramatically during such times, which in turn increases the likelihood of war. In the 19th century, Britain was the world's leading power, but in the first half of the 20th century, it was challenged by other rapidly growing and ambitious powers, notably Germany, and two world wars occurred during this period.
However, through diplomacy and the pursuit of peace, the possibility of future major wars can be averted. While the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s cannot be called a shift in the balance of power in the strict sense, it was a very significant change in the world political scene. This, along with the reunification of Germany, was made possible by the peace-seeking efforts of Soviet leaders led by Gorbachev on the one hand, and a number of high-ranking Western diplomats on the other.
Now, however, a very significant shift in the balance of power in the world is taking place. This can be observed on several levels. Although at first glance this might seem like a shift from the West to Asia, it is often discussed in terms of a shift from the United States to China. Some analysts are also talking about a shift in the balance of power from NATO countries to the BRICS members. It is difficult to say for sure, but these assumptions can give an idea of the possible events that could occur.
What are the important aspects of such a change?
Such change is often discussed in two dimensions - economic and military. However, there are other important aspects as well, including diplomacy, friendship and goodwill from other countries, soft power, democracy, media influence, etc.
How is the military balance changing ?
The United States is the leading military power because of its huge military budget and vast stockpiles of the most lethal weapons. However, corruption is eating up a significant portion of this huge budget, and the United States failed to win the wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan due to fierce local resistance. China, on the other hand, has a massive military system that matches the resources of a rapidly developing industrial economy. Both countries have large nuclear weapons, but the United States has many times more nuclear weapons. The United States has tried to contain China with the help of its Asian allies and Australia, but when the prospect of all-out war arises, these allies may hesitate to act. Although the United States has a significant military advantage on paper, it is inevitable that it will face difficulties if it attacks China from a distance. In its secure geographical location, the United States does not fear the possibility of a Chinese (or any other) invasion in a non-nuclear war. In general, the most reasonable proposal is to ask both countries to abandon war altogether.
A devastating war between these countries could weaken both to the point where they could be pushed out of the game by other players. Both Britain and Germany were weakened by their wars between 1914 and 1944, paving the way for the United States to emerge as the number one power.
What is the changing balance of economic power?
Thanks to its high growth rates, China has surpassed the United States in terms of GDP and is now the world's largest industrial power. In the United States, high debt, budget and trade deficits have increased to alarming levels. These factors, along with the irresponsible and aggressive use of the dollar's dominance, have seriously undermined the US currency's position as the world's leading reserve currency. Some observers believe that now the Chinese currency may gradually become accepted as the world's reserve currency, and the United States is determined to prevent this and maintain the dollar's strong position in the world.
At the same time, in recent times, the US and China have been rapidly moving away from adopting complementary roles and becoming increasingly hostile on trade and economic issues, a reality that can also be clearly seen in the recent tariff war.
Is an imbalance between military and economic power emerging, and what could be the consequences?
For a long time, the United States has been the undisputed leader, both economically and militarily. While it remains the leading military power, its economic power has now been undermined, and the dominance of the US dollar is also under threat. This is all the more worrying for the United States, especially given its large accumulated debt, trade and budget deficits. If a country is a leading military power but lags behind in economic power, it may seek to re-emerge as a leading economic power by using its military power. Of course, this is neither wise nor safe. However, such a temptation can arise, and such an imbalance is certain to create a dangerous situation.
Which side is morally preferable, and whose side should we take?
As with any comparison, both sides have their pros and cons. However, the US has been the leading imperialist power for decades, and its completely preventable, reckless, and endless wars have caused millions of deaths. On the other hand, China has also engaged in a number of extremely immoral and inhumane acts. The atrocities committed and being committed against the Uyghurs are proof of this. So the important thing here is not to take sides based on endless debates about who is better, but to try to create opportunities for peaceful resolution of all contentious issues, thereby increasing the chances of avoiding war. We should not take sides or sides, but rather find ways to speak out against the whole idea of any individual country trying to dominate world affairs, and to resist it when necessary.
Muhammad Dawood Asadullah
The present and near future are often discussed in terms of the changing balance of power in the world. At the same time, the possibility of a major war is increasingly being mentioned.
While there have been many significant shifts in the world order and balance of power throughout history, the current situation is unprecedented. For the first time, a major shift in the balance of power could occur in an environment where weapons of mass destruction with the power to destroy the entire world exist.
Therefore, if the expected evolution in the balance of power reaches a decisive stage, it will be extremely important to prevent the possibility of war, especially a large and destructive war, by controlling and managing the situation.
Now, to look deeper into this issue, we need to answer a number of questions...
There are significant changes in the balance of power in the world. Is there a possibility of war in these circumstances?
At such times, the likelihood of major war increases as major rivals seek to accelerate or halt shifts in the balance of power. Tensions and suspicions increase dramatically during such times, which in turn increases the likelihood of war. In the 19th century, Britain was the world's leading power, but in the first half of the 20th century, it was challenged by other rapidly growing and ambitious powers, notably Germany, and two world wars occurred during this period.
However, through diplomacy and the pursuit of peace, the possibility of future major wars can be averted. While the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s cannot be called a shift in the balance of power in the strict sense, it was a very significant change in the world political scene. This, along with the reunification of Germany, was made possible by the peace-seeking efforts of Soviet leaders led by Gorbachev on the one hand, and a number of high-ranking Western diplomats on the other.
Now, however, a very significant shift in the balance of power in the world is taking place. This can be observed on several levels. Although at first glance this might seem like a shift from the West to Asia, it is often discussed in terms of a shift from the United States to China. Some analysts are also talking about a shift in the balance of power from NATO countries to the BRICS members. It is difficult to say for sure, but these assumptions can give an idea of the possible events that could occur.
What are the important aspects of such a change?
Such change is often discussed in two dimensions - economic and military. However, there are other important aspects as well, including diplomacy, friendship and goodwill from other countries, soft power, democracy, media influence, etc.
How is the military balance changing ?
The United States is the leading military power because of its huge military budget and vast stockpiles of the most lethal weapons. However, corruption is eating up a significant portion of this huge budget, and the United States failed to win the wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan due to fierce local resistance. China, on the other hand, has a massive military system that matches the resources of a rapidly developing industrial economy. Both countries have large nuclear weapons, but the United States has many times more nuclear weapons. The United States has tried to contain China with the help of its Asian allies and Australia, but when the prospect of all-out war arises, these allies may hesitate to act. Although the United States has a significant military advantage on paper, it is inevitable that it will face difficulties if it attacks China from a distance. In its secure geographical location, the United States does not fear the possibility of a Chinese (or any other) invasion in a non-nuclear war. In general, the most reasonable proposal is to ask both countries to abandon war altogether.
A devastating war between these countries could weaken both to the point where they could be pushed out of the game by other players. Both Britain and Germany were weakened by their wars between 1914 and 1944, paving the way for the United States to emerge as the number one power.
What is the changing balance of economic power?
Thanks to its high growth rates, China has surpassed the United States in terms of GDP and is now the world's largest industrial power. In the United States, high debt, budget and trade deficits have increased to alarming levels. These factors, along with the irresponsible and aggressive use of the dollar's dominance, have seriously undermined the US currency's position as the world's leading reserve currency. Some observers believe that now the Chinese currency may gradually become accepted as the world's reserve currency, and the United States is determined to prevent this and maintain the dollar's strong position in the world.
At the same time, in recent times, the US and China have been rapidly moving away from adopting complementary roles and becoming increasingly hostile on trade and economic issues, a reality that can also be clearly seen in the recent tariff war.
Is an imbalance between military and economic power emerging, and what could be the consequences?
For a long time, the United States has been the undisputed leader, both economically and militarily. While it remains the leading military power, its economic power has now been undermined, and the dominance of the US dollar is also under threat. This is all the more worrying for the United States, especially given its large accumulated debt, trade and budget deficits. If a country is a leading military power but lags behind in economic power, it may seek to re-emerge as a leading economic power by using its military power. Of course, this is neither wise nor safe. However, such a temptation can arise, and such an imbalance is certain to create a dangerous situation.
Which side is morally preferable, and whose side should we take?
As with any comparison, both sides have their pros and cons. However, the US has been the leading imperialist power for decades, and its completely preventable, reckless, and endless wars have caused millions of deaths. On the other hand, China has also engaged in a number of extremely immoral and inhumane acts. The atrocities committed and being committed against the Uyghurs are proof of this. So the important thing here is not to take sides based on endless debates about who is better, but to try to create opportunities for peaceful resolution of all contentious issues, thereby increasing the chances of avoiding war. We should not take sides or sides, but rather find ways to speak out against the whole idea of any individual country trying to dominate world affairs, and to resist it when necessary.
Muhammad Dawood Asadullah