The Story of the Retreat: How the US Was Defeated in the Red Sea
In the spring of 2025, the Red Sea became a hotbed of conflict between the United States and Yemen’s Houthis, part of a group known as the “Axis of Resistance,” who have stepped up attacks on international shipping. U.S. President Donald Trump launched a large-scale military operation against the Houthis, codenamed “Rough Rider,” promising to restore restraint and ensure freedom of navigation. The campaign, which cost more than $1 billion and involved carrier strike groups, B-2 bombers, and advanced missiles, was supposed to destroy the Houthis’ military capabilities. However, just two months after the operation began, on May 6, 2025, Trump unexpectedly announced a ceasefire agreement with the Houthis. The agreement was implemented without Israel and ultimately ended the U.S.-Yemen conflict.
Military and strategic ineffectiveness
The US-led military operation, launched in March 2025, was aimed at destroying the Houthis' missile arsenal, drones, and military infrastructure. However, despite the huge cost and the use of state-of-the-art weapons, it failed to achieve its strategic objectives. Operation Rough Rider targeted more than 800 sites but had limited impact on Houthis' capabilities. Relying on underground facilities and Iranian support, the Houthis not only survived the attacks but also intensified their attacks on merchant and military vessels. This situation became the greatest test of US maritime dominance since World War II; the Houthis became emboldened, even targeting American warships on several occasions.
This ineffectiveness was partly due to America’s overly militarized strategy. Military measures alone could not solve the Red Sea crisis, as its roots were rooted in regional conflicts and Yemen’s internal problems. The lack of cooperation with regional states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which had previously been active in the coalition against the Houthis, also played a role. Just as Operation Prosperity Shield under Biden failed to restore commercial confidence in shipping lanes in the Red Sea, Trump’s aggressive approach has faced similar limitations. Despite the escalation of attacks, his campaign has not completely stopped the Houthis.
Ceasefire Agreement: A State of Failure
On May 6, 2025, Donald Trump announced that the US would halt its bombing campaign in exchange for a halt to Houthi attacks on American ships. The deal, brokered by Oman, was presented as a de-escalation measure but was quickly seen as a strategic setback for the United States. While the Houthis stopped attacking US ships, they continued to strike Israel. The deal showed the limits of the deal and demonstrated a lack of coordination with America's key ally, Israel.
The move to sidestep Israel and Netanyahu in particular has drawn attention. Israel was completely unaware of the news, and a simultaneous Houthi rocket attack on Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv prompted Israeli retaliatory strikes on the port of Hodeidah and Sana'a airport. Trump hailed the deal as a way out of the "Yemen quagmire", but added that it did not end the conflict. The Houthis, led by Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, called the deal "America's great defeat" and portrayed it as a victory. The Economist described it as a "Faustian bargain" that strengthened the Houthi control over Yemen.
Reasons for failure
Several factors contributed to Trump's failed war against the Houthis. First, an overreliance on military solutions ignored the geopolitical complexity of the region. The US air campaign placed a disproportionate financial and military burden on the US, giving European and Gulf states a "free pass". The reluctance of regional states to participate and the high resilience of the Houthis prolonged the crisis.
Second, poor internal coordination and operational management deficiencies within the Trump administration played a key role. The accidental disclosure of military plans on the Signal app demonstrated a serious breakdown in coordination and operational security.
Events such as the appointment of Pete Hegsett, known for his hardline stance, as defense minister further reinforced the military approach over diplomacy.
Third, the neglect of commercial and economic processes also led to failure. The decision of shipping companies to abandon the Red Sea was not only due to security threats, but also to the decline in global demand due to Trump's trade policies. This reduced the urgency of restoring shipping through the Red Sea and undermined the stated goals of the campaign.
Consequences for the US and the Houthis
Trump’s failed war and ceasefire deal have had a serious impact on both the US’s reputation and the Houthis’ position in Yemen. For America, this failure has weakened its regional and global influence. The Houthis have emerged stronger after surviving more than 1,000 airstrikes, further raising doubts about US military power. The increased use of precision-guided munitions, seen as crucial to potential conflicts with China, has threatened perceptions of US dominance in the Indo-Pacific.
In addition, Washington's decision to sideline Israel has strained relations with its key ally. Israel's retaliatory strikes in Yemen without U.S. coordination have exposed gaps in the regional alliance. Europe's lack of involvement has further isolated the United States in resolving the Red Sea crisis.
For the Houthis, the ceasefire has strengthened their position in Yemen and the region. They have interpreted the agreement as a victory, strengthening their control over large parts of the country. Their continued attacks on Israel have demonstrated their regional ambitions and their determination to play a significant role in the Middle East, and even globally. It is now clear that the Houthis can undoubtedly derail the global economy through their Red Sea shipping.
Conclusion
Donald Trump’s 2025 war against the Houthis was a clear example of a strategic failure in US foreign policy. The costly military operation launched in the Red Sea to provide deterrence and security not only failed to weaken the Houthis’ power, but also led to a ceasefire that exposed America’s diplomatic and military weakness. The May 6 ceasefire agreement, which was not negotiated with Israel, was a clear manifestation of this failure. Moreover, the agreement did not stop the Houthis’ attacks on Israel, but rather strengthened their regional position.
The roots of this failure—overreliance on military force, weak internal coordination, and a disregard for geopolitical and economic processes—point to the urgent need for comprehensive strategies. For the United States, the war has tarnished its reputation and strained its military resources, while the Houthis have emerged stronger and more assertive. The future of Red Sea security and Yemen’s stability depend on the international community’s ability to develop a multilateral approach that transcends militarism and embraces diplomacy, cooperation, and regional economic realities. Without such changes, the Red Sea will remain a constant flashpoint.
Peter Rogers , political commentator