Is Syria being vaccinated against a "coup d'état"?

What is the purpose of lifting Western sanctions?

On May 21, the UN Security Council held its next meeting. It discussed the political and humanitarian situation in Syria. A new factor in the context of the Syrian crisis was the decision of the United States and the European Union to lift previously imposed sanctions against Damascus. The administration of US President Donald Trump explained the need to lift these restrictions by the threat of a coup d'état in Syria in the coming weeks. It is noted that such an event could lead to a large-scale disintegration of the country.

The UN's campaign to lift sanctions on Syria is being welcomed. The organization believes that this step will allow Syrians to "rebuild their lives and rebuild their economies." The EU recently followed the US in lifting sanctions on Damascus. After a meeting of the European Council in Brussels, EU foreign policy chief Kaia Kallas said:

"The European community is unanimous - Damascus needs a break for now." However, the restrictions will not be completely lifted. The European Council notes that sanctions imposed against Assad, which limit the current government's ability to carry out military repression against the discontented population, will remain in force.

European officials have been working on easing sanctions on Syria since January of this year. But this process has been repeatedly blocked by Greece and Cyprus. They were concerned that Damascus would fall under Turkish influence. But in the end, the decision was made after Trump's tour of the Middle East ended. During the trip, the US president made a historic statement: America will lift all sanctions imposed during the Assad dynasty against the Syrian interim government without any conditions. As it is understood from his words, this decision was made at the personal request of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

The Brussels bureaucracy may not have been swayed by the Arab leaders' request, but US policy is playing a crucial role in its decisions. Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Kasra commented on the EU move, saying:
"We welcome this step. It reflects a positive direction in the interests of Syria and its people, who deserve peace and development. We thank all parties who contributed to this decision and confirm that this step is a new beginning towards stability and development in the country. Syria continues to restore its leading role in the region, with the will and action of its people," he said.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in his speech to Congress on May 20, said that the concessions granted to Syria serve the interests of stability.

"We want this government to succeed because the alternative is a full-blown civil war. That would have dangerous consequences for the entire region," he said. The US official added that they see "the possibility that this interim government could collapse within weeks or months and a full-scale civil war could break out." "That could lead to the division of the country."

Rubio did not specify who could undermine the government led by Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa. However, he listed two main threats facing Damascus. The first is the threat of a resurgence of the Islamic State (IS) group, which once operated in Syria. The jihadist organization has recently criticized al-Sharaa, accusing him of "betraying Islam" and portraying him as a leader who is too easy to get along with the West.

The second threat is Iranian activity. Due to Israeli attacks in Lebanon, Syria and the Gaza Strip, Iran has lost much of its military and political influence in the region. Rubio believes that "uncontrolled areas" in Syria could become a safe haven for foreign fighters.

But there are other weak spots in the country. Since March, the situation has been tense in some regions of Syria, especially in areas inhabited by Alawites. Assad and those around him belong to this confession. According to the interim government, it is in these areas that remnants of the former regime are still active, planning to seize power and mobilizing the population. Also, on May 20, unknown gunmen attempted to attack a military facility near the Khmeimim air base, which was previously under Russian control, in the Latakia province, but did not achieve any results.

Coup attempts have been reported before. As of December 8, 2024, Assad and his entourage had fled Syria as forces led by al-Sharaa began advancing. In April, the interim government's Interior Ministry reported that former Assad officials had attempted a coup, but the plan had been foiled.

At the same time, according to the analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in the US, the easing of Western sanctions will not prevent the resurgence of internal conflicts in Syria. The institute concluded that internal conflicts may arise due to sectarian and ethnic concerns that arose during the civil war. For example, Kurdish forces are said to still refuse to disarm because they fear that forces loyal to Turkey will launch attacks on Kurdish cities.

A similar situation is occurring with the Druze people living in southern Syria. According to ISW, they have been negotiating separately with the interim government to keep their weapons because they do not trust the government to protect them. Experts say this lack of trust could lead to a resurgence of internal conflict.

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