Iran-Israel conflict: The specter of a major war looms over the Middle East

Israel has carried out airstrikes on Iran's nuclear and military facilities. Several military leaders and nuclear scientists have been killed. Israel's terrorist Prime Minister Netanyahu said the operation would last as long as necessary. Ali Khamenei promised a serious response to Israel. The operation has significantly escalated the bilateral standoff. At the same time, Tehran has vowed that Israel will "pay a heavy price," while Washington has warned Iran against attacking US interests or personnel.

On Friday morning, Israel launched a series of airstrikes on Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missile launch sites. This led to a serious escalation in a long-standing confrontation that could lead to a wider war in the Middle East. In turn, Iran has also launched drones and ballistic missiles into Israel, putting to shame the talk of the "mythical shield" of Israel's Iron Dome air defense system. After all, hundreds of Iranian missiles and drones reached the financial district of Tel Aviv, the IDF headquarters, the Ministry of Economy, the Tel Nof air base, and the air defense base in Haifa, causing serious damage to the enemy. So, in terms of military capabilities, Iran has the ability to strike Israel. Their weapons include long-range missiles, drones and other attack vehicles. But the scale of the strikes carried out by Iran is nothing compared to the Israeli attack. The military capabilities of Israel, which has advanced military technology and receives support from powerful countries such as the United States and Great Britain, and Iran, which has been living under international sanctions for 46 years and has almost no fleet of strategic bombers and fighter jets, cannot be compared. Israel has strong defensive and offensive capabilities. They have missile defense systems such as the Iron Dome and a strong air force. The fact that more than 200 aircraft have hit dozens and hundreds of military targets in Iran and Iran's nuclear facilities, the assassination of more than 20 high-ranking commanders and generals, including nuclear scientists, and the fact that Israeli intelligence services were able to bring drones into Iran are evidence of its strong power. If a direct military conflict between Iran and Israel were to drag on for months, it would have serious consequences for the region and the world, debilitating Israel and causing a deep political crisis in the country. It is highly likely that other countries will also get involved in this war. Therefore, many countries and international organizations are trying to defuse such tensions and resolve the problems diplomatically. However, if Israel achieves its goals in the short term (it is said that the strikes could last two weeks), this could lead to the beginning of a crisis of the "mullahs' regime" in Iran.

Local and social media reports said the explosions took place in Tehran, Natanz (home to one of Iran's main nuclear facilities), and Fordow (a major nuclear facility) in central Qom, among other cities. The Israeli military said the overnight strikes hit more than 100 targets. Iranian state media reported that the dead included: Hossein Salomi, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Gholamali Rashid, head of the Khotamul-Anbiya Central Command. Mohammad Baqeri, chief of the Iranian Armed Forces' General Staff. The Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said six nuclear scientists were also killed in the attacks, five of whom were identified: Fareidon Abbasi, former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. Mohammad Mahdi Tehranchi – involved in Iran's nuclear weapons program. Abdulhamid Minuchehr – head of the nuclear engineering department at Shahid Beheshti University. Ahmad Reza Zolfaghari – professor of nuclear engineering, Shahid Beheshti University. Amirhossein Faqhi – professor of nuclear sciences, Shahid Beheshti University. In addition, Ali Shamkhani, a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was also reported to have been seriously injured.

The attack on Iran was on an unprecedented scale. It was a scenario that everyone had feared in recent years. Israel was on high alert: Tehran's reaction could be different from previous retaliatory strikes. This attack exceeded the number of strikes that hostile countries have carried out against each other in recent years. In addition to military bases, Israel also attacked Iran's nuclear facilities. Just like when it struck Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981 or launched an airstrike on a nuclear facility under construction in Syria in 2007. The attack on Iran's nuclear facilities on June 13th was the realization of a scenario that had been feared for decades. Unfortunately, Israeli jet fighter-bombers are freely refueling in Syrian airspace to strike targets in Iran. Israeli warplanes are freely violating and crossing Syrian airspace to strike Iran. The overthrow of the Syrian government and the rise of the "HTS" only benefited Israel.

Why did Israel attack now? Shortly after the airstrikes began, the Israeli government released a seven-minute address by the prime minister, some in English. The operation launched by Israel was called Operation Rising Lion. According to Netanyahu, the operation was aimed at "eliminating the Iranian threat to Israel's existence" and would "last as long as necessary." The head of government, speculating on Iran's progress in creating an atomic bomb, compared it to the Nazis: "Today, the Jewish state refuses to become a victim of a nuclear holocaust." Netanyahu said that Iran's ballistic missiles also pose a great threat, and directly addressed its ally the United States: "Imagine if 10,000 tons of TNT fell on a state like New Jersey. This is a terrible threat. And it must be neutralized." But there are a number of other reasons behind this attack. First, executioner rulers like Netanyahu need wars like the one with Iran to stay in power. Netanyahu, who is currently facing corruption charges, is likely to face trial as soon as he leaves office. That is why he is reluctant to cease fire with Hamas. Moreover, after the Iranian-backed Hamas terror attack in southern Israel 20 months ago, he managed to consolidate his coalition with the far right and the ultra-Orthodox (Judaism's most conservative and consistent adherents to religious laws, traditions, and customs) in exchange for new concessions. Nevertheless, this week, radical religious figures threatened to leave the government if an agreement is not reached to exempt young ultra-Orthodox from military service. This could be a ploy to appease or distract the regime in Tehran. Journalist Amit Segal, who is usually well-informed about the country's political events, said that the announcement on Channel 12 that Netanyahu was going on vacation, as well as the wedding of his youngest son, Avner Netanyahu, scheduled for Monday, could have been possible distractions. Now, instead of a vacation, there was an attack.

Secondly, the goal is not just to destroy Iran's nuclear programs. It is to weaken it militarily, to turn it into a weak state in the Middle East, unable to interfere in regional affairs. If you remember, along the way, Israel weakened Iran's proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and Ansarullah in Yemen. In order to eliminate Iranian influence in Syria, it overthrew the Alawite-dominated government of Bashar al-Assad. This completely put an end to Iranian involvement in Syria and cut off Iran's hand in the region. Now Israel has begun to settle accounts with Iran itself. Let us dwell on another reason behind Israel and the US's attempts to weaken Iran. It is also in the Middle East, at the junction of the borders of Syria, Turkey, Iran and Iraq, in the territories inhabited by the Kurds, to establish a state of Kurdistan and gain geopolitical dominance in the region through this structure. If the current Iranian regime weakens, there is a high probability that separatism will begin in Iran, especially in the Baluchistan province on the Iran-Pakistan border, and the Kurds will start fighting for independence. The fact that Kurdish military units in Syria are undergoing military training by Israeli military specialists and that Israel is providing military support is proof of this. Israeli attacks also aim to strike Iran's transport and logistics systems. These international transport corridors can destroy, in particular, the "North-South" project being implemented at the initiative of Russia. In addition, there is no doubt that these attacks are intended to disrupt the rapprochement of Russia, China and Iran. After all, the US president has repeatedly stated that he will not allow this trilateral alliance. The current situation has both positive and negative aspects for Russia. Russia is in a difficult political situation, because it needs to support Tehran, a strategic partner, at least diplomatically. And it has. President Putin publicly condemned Israel's aggression in a conversation with the Israeli prime minister. But at the same time, it maintains good relations with Israel. The Russian Foreign Ministry called the attack on Iran unfounded and untimely, and said that Israel's actions undermined multilateral diplomatic efforts on the nuclear deal. On the other hand, Russia has economic interests in Iran. Russia is investing $8 billion in Iranian gas projects. The volume of gas supplies to the countries of the Middle East and South Asia through Iran will help compensate for the loss of the European market. The conflict in the Middle East will force the United States to turn its back on Ukraine and focus on supporting Israel. Washington has already intervened in the conflict, as it is helping Tel Aviv not only with American weapons, but also with intelligence. Even Patriot air defense systems intended for Ukraine have been transferred to Israel. This could mean that Russia's operations in Ukraine will have a positive outcome for Moscow. At the same time, the Russian economy will benefit from rising crude oil prices. Against the backdrop of Israel's strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran, the price of Brent crude oil rose by 13% to $78 per barrel, the biggest intraday jump since March 2022. Russia's domestic market has also begun to grow against the backdrop of rising oil prices and rising shares of fuel companies. If Iran decides to block the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important routes for the transport of crude oil and liquefied natural gas, the upward trend in fuel prices will continue. But given OPEC's policy of increasing oil production, it will not last long. Against the backdrop of the escalating conflict in the Middle East, the price of "safe assets", in particular gold, has also increased. This may also be a help for Russia, which has been increasing its gold reserves in recent years. But this small victory poses a risk of maintaining instability in the Middle East and escalating the situation to the point of nuclear conflict.

A few days ago, a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) raised concerns. Vienna-based experts wrote that Iran has significantly increased its production of weapons-grade uranium in recent weeks. According to the report, Tehran has about 409 kilograms of uranium with a purity of 60%. The uranium can be enriched to a weapons-grade 90% in two weeks. Experts worry that it would take several months, or at most a year, to build a real bomb. On Friday morning, an Israeli military spokesman said: "The regime has enough highly enriched nuclear material to make 15 bombs in a matter of days." In turn, Netanyahu spoke in his speech about "enriched uranium enough to make nine bombs." In addition, Iran has significantly increased its production of ballistic missiles, and according to a military spokesman, the country has "hundreds or thousands of missiles." Chinese businessman Li Fanwei was a key backer of Iran's missile program. According to the State Department, Li Fanwei created a vast network of shell companies through which he sold components to Iran to build ballistic missiles, a 2023 SPIEGEL investigation showed.

Was the US involved? Even if US President Donald Trump was informed, he did not, as he later said, make it known before the attack: "We remain committed to a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue!" Trump wrote on his TruthSocial platform about four hours before the Israeli attack. "My entire government has been instructed to negotiate with Iran." The US and Iran have recently held talks on their nuclear program. The sixth round of these talks was scheduled for Monday in Oman. Trump's Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US "was not involved in the strikes on Iran." Israel "took unilateral measures against Iran." He added that the US would focus on protecting its armed forces in the region. US President Donald Trump has called on Iran to reach a nuclear deal and stressed that Tehran has been "given successive opportunities." On Sunday, the US-Iran talks were expected to enter their sixth round. Although the US military denies involvement in the strikes, it supports their operations. “There has already been great destruction and destruction, but there is still time to stop this bloodshed. The next planned strikes will be even more brutal,” Trump said. “Iran must make a deal before there is nothing left. Do it to save what was once called the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction. Just do it before it is too late,” he urged Iran to engage. Trump has previously said he was aware of Israel’s plans for the strikes, but has stressed that the US military was not involved in the operation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the Iranians, his words were reported by The Times of Israel. He told them, "For almost fifty years, this regime has taken away from you the opportunity to live a good life."

What to expect? Israel is preparing for an Iranian retaliation. The airspace is closed. Hospitals are moving their emergency rooms into bunkers. Citizens have been advised to move closer to shelters. The US embassy in Jerusalem has also ordered all staff and their families to take shelter in shelters. Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir warned that Iran's response could be different from previous retaliatory strikes. He added: "I can't promise anything but success." The extent of Iran's retaliation is not yet clear, but all signs point to an escalation in tensions. Iranian Armed Forces spokesman General Abolfazl Shekarchi said on state television that Israel and the US would "receive a strong blow." A counterattack would "certainly" take place. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared in a statement that Israel "should expect a severe punishment." If Iran has missiles ready to launch in its arsenal, a large-scale retaliation can be expected. As is known, in April 2024, Iran attacked Israel with hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, and in October, it repeated the attack, launching from 180 to 200 missiles. Most of them were intercepted, including thanks to the US support for the Israeli missile defense system. This time, the US is also actively helping to protect Israel. Iran is trying to shoot down its missiles and drones on the way. But the question remains whether Israeli aviation will be able to destroy the specially protected Iranian nuclear facility in the center of Iran. If Israel cannot destroy Fordo (a specially protected underground uranium enrichment facility), it will not be able to deprive Iran of the ability to enrich uranium for military purposes. So far, two attacks on this facility have failed.

Since Trump took office in January, his attempts to reach a new nuclear deal with Iran have failed. The parties have been unable to resolve a fundamental dispute: the United States, along with Israel, insists that Iran should not be allowed to enrich uranium, while Tehran continues to insist that it has the right to do so. The Islamic Republic says it must process uranium for fuel for nuclear power plants, including for civilian purposes, at least to a low level. Iran escalated tensions on Thursday when officials announced the opening of new uranium enrichment facilities. The International Atomic Energy Agency, a UN watchdog, had previously said Iran was not meeting its international obligations. The IAEA's assessment paved the way for the reimposition of broad UN sanctions on Iran. Iran has long insisted that its nuclear program is aimed solely at civilian purposes. There are several nuclear facilities across the country, some of which have been targeted in recent Israeli strikes. But many countries, including the International Atomic Energy Agency, do not believe that Iran's nuclear program is exclusively peaceful. This week, the agency's board of directors formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years. Its statement cited Iran's failure to provide a full account of undeclared nuclear materials and numerous deficiencies in its stockpile of enriched uranium. A previous report said Iran had enriched uranium to 60% purity. That amount of material could be enough to make nine nuclear bombs. The United States has tried to negotiate, but they have reached an impasse. No agreement has been reached. Iran and Israel have been waging a covert war for decades. Meanwhile, Tehran does not recognize the state of Israel and uses proxy forces such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen to attack the Jewish state. Israel, in turn, has been accused of a series of assassinations and covert attacks on Iranian soil, including attacks on nuclear scientists.

So the current conflict between Israel and Iran is very different from last year, when the mutual attacks were more demonstrative. Israel can only emerge victorious from this situation if it can crush Iran's military power in a matter of days. If the war becomes chronic, Iran's capabilities will increase, even though it has few allies in the region. The conflict between Israel and Iran risks escalating into a full-scale war, especially if Tehran is supported by the Houthis. They launched two missiles at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport two days before Israel's strike on Iran. The scale of the conflict will depend on Iran's response. Other Middle Eastern players - Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Pakistan and Afghanistan - could also be drawn into the armed conflict. In this case, the situation in the Middle East will be unstable for many years. Tehran has at least 2,000 missiles that can reach targets in Israel, including military airfields, missile complexes and the nuclear center in Dimona. It could also strike Iran's chemical plants or the port of Haifa, which is strategically and economically important for Tel Aviv. The question is, having lost 20 commanders in one day, will Tehran be able to find worthy replacements who can adequately assess the prospects for continuing the conflict and the possible consequences of a retaliatory strike?