Kremlin fears: Is Russia-Azerbaijan on the brink of war?

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's call on the Ukrainian people to "never agree to occupation," "never surrender," and "never allow territorial integrity to be violated" has sparked serious debate in Russia.

Excerpt from Aliyev's speech: "My main advice is this - never let them conquer you. More precisely, this is how we see this process: never surrender and never live as slaves."

Aliyev's words were sharply criticized by Russian Z-bloggers.

Some military bloggers and political analysts took Aliyev's words as a clear disrespect for Moscow and immediately responded, even going so far as to threaten war.

The Kremlin, however, has been more cautious than expected in its response to the situation. Commenting on the current situation, spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged that a difficult period has begun in relations with Azerbaijan.

"There are sometimes difficult times in relations between the two countries. We are in such a time now. We hope that everything will change for the better," the Kremlin said in a statement.

But the Azerbaijanis are not going to rest on their laurels. Baku intends to take Russia to international court for the deliberate shooting down of a passenger plane belonging to Azal Airlines in December 2024. Recall that 38 people died in that incident.

Such harsh statements and actions indicate that relations between Moscow and Baku are straining to an unprecedented level. The crisis in relations began on June 27, 2025, when Russian police in Yekaterinburg detained about 50 ethnic Azerbaijanis suspected of crimes committed between 2001 and 2011. Two of the detained Azerbaijanis died in police custody. Baku was outraged that, according to a forensic examination, the deaths were caused by multiple injuries.

In response, as they say, "Hello, greetings," the office of the Russian propaganda outlet Sputnik Azerbaijan was raided on June 30. Seven journalists, including editor-in-chief Yevgeny Belousov and director Igor Kartovich, were arrested. They were charged with fraud and illegal entrepreneurship.

In addition, it was reported that 15 Russians, mainly IT specialists, were arrested on suspicion of drug trafficking and cybercrime.

Analysts are assessing these events as the beginning of a new geopolitical stage in Azerbaijani-Russian relations.

"Ilham Aliyev's speech is a clear signal not only for Ukraine, but for the entire post-Soviet region. He takes an uncompromising position against Russia's territorial aggression," wrote Mehmet Kocak, an analyst at the Center for Geopolitical Studies.

TRT analyst Mustafa Öztürk said: "Russia is afraid of losing its influence in the Caucasus. Azerbaijan is seeking to take a position closer to NATO. This confrontation is a strategic threat to Moscow."

Another political analyst, Orhan Bozkurt, believes that "Aliev's statement is not just a diplomatic gesture - it is a clear signal that will lead to a change in the political balance in the Caucasus. Russia fears that Azerbaijan will become an example for the remaining former Soviet colonies."

In conclusion:

Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have entered another serious crisis phase in their history. This dispute is taking place not only between the two countries, but also within the framework of a larger geopolitical struggle in the region at the intersection of the interests of Turkey, the West, Iran, and China.

Aliyev's position indicates that Azerbaijan has entered a new phase of foreign policy - an active, independent and uncompromising one. Russia is likely to respond to this process through various means of pressure.