Will the Earth's population stop growing?
The total fertility rate ( TFR) , the average number of children per woman worldwide, is falling rapidly, Our World in Data reports .
Since 1950, the world's average fertility rate has fallen from about 5 children per woman to 2.3. Humanity is approaching the threshold of 2.1 needed to sustain a sustainable population, and below this rate, humanity will begin to decline over time.
Given migration trends, the population of many countries is expected to decline by the end of the century. Thus, according to the forecast presented by Our World in Data, the population of China, Japan, South Korea, Poland , Ukraine, Serbia, Albania and many other countries will decrease by almost 2 times. The population of Russia and Brazil will decrease by more than 30 million people, and in Germany by 14 million people. The population of Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal will decrease by almost one and a half times.
These figures describe a demographic time bomb already facing a number of East Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and China: According to the UN , China's population reached 1.425 billion in July 2022 and then began to decline ; UN XXI predicts that by the end of the century China's population will shrink to about half its current level.
According to the South Korean Institute of Health and Social Affairs, the GDP of the East Asian country will decrease by 28% by 2050 due to the rapid aging of the population.
Many Western countries are already facing an aging population , but the pace and impact of these changes is being moderated by immigration. In particular, it predicts that by 2100, despite the global trend, the population of the United States, Great Britain, Canada and France will not decrease significantly due to immigrants.
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