Where will the new conflicts be in 2024?
In 2023, journalist Mehmet Kanji wrote about how the concept of a unipolar world order has failed in various conflict zones and his predictions for 2024.
The year 2023 will be remembered for the crisis of the "Unipolar World Order", which was supposed to be introduced after the Cold War.
Gorbachev's signature on December 26, 1991, "putting the nail in the coffin of the USSR," did not cement the victory of the liberal Western world as expected for the next 32 years. Instead of stabilizing global prosperity, US-led Western Europe has exacerbated conflicts in the Middle East and the Balkans. They turned a blind eye to the slaughter of millions of people in Rwanda to open the door to a new era of colonialism with advanced technology in Africa.
NATO's plan to move towards the East within the framework of the unipolar world order has turned Ukraine into ruins. As 2023 draws to a close, the war in Ukraine has been forgotten, economic and military aid to Ukraine from the US and the West has waned. If it weren't for Ukraine's occasional "theatrical" attacks against the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, what's happening on this front wouldn't even be worth mentioning.
Another "forgotten" war is taking place in Sudan. Following the failed coup attempt on April 15, the civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and paramilitary forces operating under the name Rapid Support Force has been largely ignored by the international community. The number of people who left their homes exceeded 6 million, and more than 1 million of them sought refuge in neighboring countries. The United Nations (UN) and its aid agencies are literally in crisis in Sudan.
Another region expected to see increased conflict in 2023 is the Balochistan region, which includes Pakistan and Iran. In 2021, the Taliban were not the only ones to acquire weapons left behind by the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, as separatist Baloch groups operating in Pakistan and Iran also began to use these resources, increasing violence in the region.
As Israel's offensive on Gaza continues in 2024, threats to Lebanon and the Red Sea from these attacks will increase. The Israeli government does not hide its intention to occupy the part of the Lebanese territory up to the Litani River.
In Yemen, the Iranian-backed Houthis have demonstrated their ability to disrupt global trade through the Suez Canal. In the first week, Spain, France and Italy left the "Operation Rafah Guardian", which the US wants to implement to eliminate this threat. This event, which Washington refrained from commenting on, was a practical expression of the attitude of the Western camp to the "unipolar world order".
Also, in the regions of the Sahara and South-West Africa, terrorist conflicts and the activities of groups waging an armed struggle against the junta administration in Myanmar have increased.
Strategically important for the reshaping of energy and trade routes in Southeast Asia, Myanmar is of great interest to the United States and Russia due to its 2,129 km border with China and 1,643 km border with India.
The conflicts of 2023 will be on a new scale in 2024
Taiwan's January 13 presidential and general elections will mark the first wave of potential crises in the new year. Independence supporters have a high probability of winning the election. However, the United States expects actions from the Beijing administration similar to Moscow's intervention in Ukraine. Although the People's Republic of China has often reiterated that it has no intention of annexing Taiwan by war, it should not be overlooked that the United States allocates a significant portion of its $886 billion defense budget to contain the People's Republic of China.
Japan's armaments efforts, changes to its arms export laws, and North Korea's move to acquire space technology from Russia are also factors that will make the Indo-Pacific region hotter in 2024.
Latin America is full of surprises
Let's move on to Latin America, where relative peace prevails. Tensions erupted when Venezuela laid claim to the territory of its mineral-rich neighbor, Guyana, after Britain sent the warship HMS Trent to the region. It should not be assumed that the UK's mobilized fleet is focused solely on Guyana. The rhetoric of Argentine President Xavier Miley, who took office on December 10, claiming rights over the Falkland/Malvinas Islands, may also bring British naval power to the agenda in the South Atlantic.
Plans are underway for the Arctic region
Another geographic region where tensions over ownership of natural resources and trade routes may increase in 2024 is the Arctic. According to Bloomberg, the US State Department is preparing to implement a decision to increase the continental shelf of the US by 1 million square kilometers, almost all of which falls on the Arctic continent. This area covers the marine areas of the northern and western part of the state of Alaska, USA. Russia is preparing to build a Project 22220 Arctic nuclear icebreaker to strengthen its dominance in the region.
In 2024, space will once again become a conflict zone
Speaking of the struggle for untapped resources, we must also remember the struggle for water resources on Earth's moon, the Moon, in 2023. While the Russian Luna-25 lunar rover crashed and was destroyed, India's Chandrayaan-3 successfully landed on the South Pole of the Moon. A major attack from the United States is expected in 2024 in the restarted "Travel to the Moon" race. As part of the Artemis project, NASA will send 3 American and 1 Canadian astronauts into lunar orbit. If this mission is successful, in 2025, after a 53-year hiatus, the United States will attempt to land astronauts on the surface of the Moon again. One of the most important goals of the Artemis project is that the US wants to make space travel more cost-effective by establishing a base on the Moon. In addition, the Washington administration wants to use the Moon as a weapons platform to monitor and strike at its adversaries on Earth.
Elections in the US and Europe could lead to new instability
Including the November elections in the USA among the conflicts expected in 2024 is not without benefits. The congressional raids that followed the 2020 election in which Donald Trump lost the presidency revealed that US domestic politics is fraught with violence. Polls show Trump is tied for the Republican presidential nomination. Before the election, the federal trial against Trump, which will begin in March, may cause unexpected changes on the territory of the United States.
The June 6-9 elections to determine new members of the European Parliament also have the potential to affect global balances. Center-right, populist and far-right parties skeptical of the future of the European Union (EU) are very close to winning an absolute majority in the 720-seat parliament, according to a poll. The dominance of the extreme right in the European Parliament also calls into question the future of the European Union.
The declining importance of multilateral institutions, particularly the UN, will present the world with more difficult challenges in 2024.
In this situation, Turkey's formula of "regional solutions to regional problems" is an inevitable necessity, which is included in the agenda of the capitals.
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