What changes are expected in US foreign policy under Donald Trump?

The actions of US President Trump have surprised many . His decision to withdraw the US from the WTO and the Paris Agreement, his populist statements about the annexation of Panama, Greenland, Mexico and Canada to the US, and his statements about a quick end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict have attracted the attention of humanity. Let's approach each of them analytically

Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions and contradictions in the world, questions are arising about how the coming to power of Donald Trump in the United States will turn the situation. The actions of US President Trump are surprising many . The US decision to withdraw from the World Health Organization and the 2015 Paris Agreement to combat climate change, its imperialist statements against countries like Panama, Greenland, Mexico and Canada, its populist statements about their annexation by the US, and its statements about a quick end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict have attracted the attention of humanity. Let 's approach each of them analytically.

Trump began the process of withdrawing the country from the WHO at the end of his first term, which lasted from 2017 to 2021. The next president, Joe Biden, reversed this decision in his first days in the White House. On January 21, Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the United States from the World Health Organization. His position on the Paris Agreement and the withdrawal from the WHO reflects a more anti-China sentiment. During his first presidency, he saw Beijing as a major competitor and imposed appropriate trade restrictions on it, and this policy will continue. According to figures cited by Donald Trump, during his presidency, the annual contribution of the United States to the WHO, with a population of 350 million, fell to $ 500 million, while the payment of the PRC, with a population of 1.4 billion, amounted to only $ 39 million. The fact that Trump signed the order on the first day of his presidency increases the likelihood that the United States will officially leave the organization.

“They really wanted us to come back, so we’ll see what happens,” Trump said, hinting that the US could return to the WHO in the future. Trump has previously criticized the organization for its handling of the coronavirus pandemic. In particular, he said the WHO was “dependent on China” in the fight against Covid. The document also notes that the WHO “failed to implement urgently needed reforms and demonstrate its independence from undue political influence by WHO member states.” Under the Biden administration, the United States has become the WHO’s largest funder. The statement suggests that the discontent is over China’s growing influence over the organization. Trump says the organization has done little to prevent the coronavirus outbreak in his country and has spent too much time focusing on the situation in China. In addition, Trump believes that the WHO also gave incorrect recommendations, which led to a large-scale epidemic in the country. However, withdrawing from it would harm both the United States and the rest of the world. Because Washington created the WHO, and now they have left it. This is also reflected in the dissatisfaction of US pharmaceutical companies with the work of the WHO, which is based on their personal interests. We should not think that they care about the citizens of the world, about the health of our planet. Another interesting aspect of the issue is that it was the US that first pulled everyone into the climate agenda, and now they are withdrawing from the climate agreement .

There are also certain reasons why Washington is abandoning the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius by abandoning traditional energy, switching to green energy, and thereby reducing harmful emissions into the atmosphere. According to Trump, if this agreement is implemented, US industry will suffer huge losses. Therefore, Trump wants to achieve a sharp increase in oil and gas production, reducing their prices on the world and domestic markets, and given that the prices of other products depend on energy prices, Trump wants to achieve price stability and curb inflation in the US. Secondly, according to Trump , despite signing the Paris Agreement, China continues to pollute the air with impunity. This policy also seems to be related to China. Trump is withdrawing the US from the Paris Climate Agreement signed in 2015 for the second time. Joe Biden, who took office after Trump in 2021, returned the US to the Paris Agreement from the first day. Some analysts say the US's shifting stance on the issue could discourage other countries from taking their commitments seriously. The US withdrawal from the deal would make it one of only four countries in the world not to be a party to the agreement, after Iran, Lebanon and Yemen. President Donald Trump has said his foreign policy aims to make America safer, stronger and more prosperous.

China is seen by the US as a major rival and threat. It accuses Beijing of genocide against the Uighurs. Taiwan is a US ally and Washington protects it. It also criticizes China for pressuring its citizens to take up senior positions at the UN. Stefanik , a candidate for US ambassador to the UN, says it is worrying that Chinese civil servants are now in charge of the International Telecommunication Union and the International Civil Aviation Organization. In artificial intelligence and other areas, he says, Americans need to lead the international community, “ so that we can set the standards and norms. ” The US is the largest contributor to the UN. The US considers the UN agencies it runs, including the World Food Programme and the Children’s Agency , to be the most effective and has been a staunch supporter of these institutions.

Turning to other foreign policy issues, supporting Israel in the Middle East will be a top priority . The new administration believes that “anti-Semitic attitudes and thinking are rampant in the UN system and must be addressed. “We stand with Israel in the UN Security Council and in every part of the UN,” Stefanik says, proving this point. President Trump will fight to maintain control of the region, seek to destroy Hamas and Hezbollah, and provide whatever assistance is necessary for the Jewish state to live in security. He will pretend to provide humanitarian assistance to the Palestinian people, but he will continue to supply Israel with devastating weapons to destroy this suffering people. In Stefanik ’s view, most of the land claimed by the Palestinians belongs to Israel. The new Secretary of State , Marco Rubio, is also determined to put US interests first, like Trump. In any direction, Washington fights first and foremost for its own interests. National security, values, and principles are always put first, because these are the foundations of US statehood.

China and Russia will be the most important foreign policy issues. Stopping the war in Ukraine, ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, resolving a number of long-standing conflicts around the world, ensuring that other conflicts do not arise, and promoting American values will be top priorities. As a senator, Rubio has been a fierce critic of China. He describes Beijing as one of the most bloodthirsty regimes, especially accusing it of cruelty towards the Uyghurs. He has denounced dictatorships, autocracy, and lawless and abusive regimes, including Russia. According to many, Trump's style in his second term may differ from his first.

At the same time, one of the biggest problems in the world for the United States may be the issue of the “borderless military-political partnership” that Russia and China have been talking about for the past three years. In 2022, Washington’s relations with Moscow and Beijing were completely different. After Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, the United States severed almost all ties with Moscow. With China, the Biden administration followed the principle of “opposing and limiting when necessary, and agreeing and cooperating where possible in key areas.” The dispute over Chinese balloons flying over US territory, Washington’s strong pressure on TikTok, Beijing’s threatening actions towards Taiwan, and joint Russian-Chinese bomber exercises have negatively affected US-China relations. Nevertheless, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping have met in person several times and reached an agreement to continue dialogue. But now US-China relations may become tense. There are concerns that relations with China will become more turbulent and full of conflicts during Donald Trump's second administration . Disagreements may intensify and a serious crisis in these relations may occur. This is especially likely to happen at a time when communication channels are reduced and areas of cooperation are narrowing. It is highly likely that relations between the two countries will develop in this direction over the next four years. Announcements that Trump and Putin plan to meet and discuss the issue of Ukraine may cause serious concern in Beijing. Trump wants to achieve a quick ceasefire in Ukraine and has appointed General Kellogg, who is very close to him, to negotiate on this issue. Trump will soon contact Putin. These contacts may change the structure of the strategic triangle between the great powers in a certain direction. Future relations between Trump and Putin may be perceived as a threat to China's place in the world. For this reason, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev recently visited Beijing. Many analysts immediately expressed their opinion on the meeting between Medvedev and Xi. Perhaps it was to make it clear that despite Trump's statements about separating Moscow and Beijing, the Kremlin will not abandon a friend like China.

Another issue. China 's attempts to strengthen cooperation with Russia in regions such as the Arctic are worrying the United States. Trump's attempts to buy Greenland and re-annex the Panama Canal as Washington's property are also explained by concerns about China. The fact that Chinese goods are transported through the Panama Canal, the Panamanian state earns a lot of money from this, and the US is also being charged duties is infuriating Trump. Trump is a person who likes to make "deals". In this regard, even if Panama is not annexed , he will try to persuade it not to charge for the transport of US goods. Washington, which sees China, rather than Russia, as a potential threat, could deploy powerful air defense systems in Greenland (to protect against both Beijing and Moscow's missiles), and acquire the vast underground and land resources there. Moreover, one of the US Deputy Secretary of Defense, Eli Ratner, recently reminded that China “is not only repeating the patterns of Russian propaganda on the war in Ukraine in many cases, but also helping to keep Russian industry afloat and supplying it with dual-purpose products.” Today, both Moscow and Beijing are distrustful of the United States. The main goal of Russia and China is to remove the United States from world leadership, and to do this, they use methods such as cyberattacks on infrastructure and damage to the telecommunications sector. This is a serious threat to US national security. The rapprochement between China and Russia is directed against the global strategic interests of the United States and may weaken cooperation with European countries. At the same time, the Sino-Russian alliance looks especially attractive to countries that are dissatisfied with the current international order - Turkey, South Africa, Brazil, and Middle Eastern regimes, which increases the likelihood of a new image of the international balance. The need for the emergence of BRICS also testifies to this. Trump’s euphoric rhetoric also limits the United States’ ability to undermine China-Russia cooperation. But while Putin sees Trump’s return to the White House as a positive development, Xi Jinping is looking at the future with trepidation. During Trump’s first term, he has launched a trade war with China; targeted Chinese tech giant Huawei with sanctions and pressure, seeking to remove its equipment from U.S. allies’ networks; increased U.S. military presence and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific; and waged a propaganda war over the COVID-19 pandemic. This time, things may look even worse for Xi Jinping. In 2016, China’s economy was growing much faster than it is now, while the U.S. economy was much slower. Today, the picture is much different. Indeed, economic growth has slowed.

Trump plans to meet with Putin in the coming months. He will certainly meet with the Russian president, but with one goal in mind - to force Putin to make concessions. No matter what Trump comes up with, he will not be able to force Putin to make concessions. Although the conflict in Ukraine was not on the list of priorities of the new US administration, which Donald Trump announced during his inauguration speech, he touched on it in an interview with the media on the first day of his presidency. According to Trump, Vladimir Putin is “destroying Russia” by refusing to agree to peace. (...) Such a sharp increase in rhetoric towards Moscow is due to the US president’s inability to fulfill his campaign promises in the near future. He sent the world the message that he would stop the war in one day. Donald Trump faced strong resistance from the authorities in Moscow. Unfortunately, the agreement is primarily being blocked by two demands put forward by Russia: the West's abandonment of Ukraine's NATO membership plans and the lifting of sanctions. The first demand would mean abandoning the goals of the US, which were part of Donald Trump's first presidential strategy. The second demand is impossible to implement. The US cannot unilaterally lift all sanctions, since they were imposed not only by Washington, but also by the EU and other allies. But there is no certainty that the pressure of sanctions will have an effect on the Kremlin. Sanctions against Moscow will not change anything. President Trump is sending very contradictory signals. First he spoke of ending the conflict in one day, and then immediately about additional sanctions. There is no coherent strategy in sight. Moreover, Moscow's main goal is not in Ukraine itself, but to restore Russia's influence to the level it had during the Soviet era. I think the Kremlin will not give up on achieving its goals. The latest strong signals from the United States can be taken as evidence of the realization that it can only talk to Russia from a strong position. Moscow's unwillingness to freeze the conflict is also connected with the current situation on the front. While the situation is developing favorably for itself, Putin does not intend to put an end to the conflict. Russia currently has a huge advantage. The coldest month of winter is underway, which will allow Russia to exhaust Ukraine by attacking its energy infrastructure and transport hubs. Russia is already doing this. Trump's campaign statements about ending the conflict within 24 hours have not stood the test. The US special representative for Ukraine, General Keith Kellogg, is currently talking about reaching an agreement within 100 days, but it is unlikely that peace will be achieved within this time frame. According to certain signs, Russia does not plan to fight in 2026. This is, in particular, due to the budget plan. Russia's military budget for 2025 is at a record high, and the plan for 2026 is even more modest. Putin is interested in weakening Ukraine as much as possible, sitting at the negotiating table with all the trump cards in his hand. Vladimir Zelensky himself said that the condition for a ceasefire should be the creation of an international contingent of peacekeepers who would prevent further Russian attacks. According to him, this would require the deployment of 200,000 Western military personnel on Ukrainian territory. In the current situation, it is difficult to say exactly how many and which countries would be involved, but it may be necessary to create a buffer zone under the control of international troops. The creation of such a peacekeeper contingent would probably be a guarantee that would replace the promise of Ukraine's early accession to NATO. However, at the moment, Europe is not ready for this in terms of its existing capabilities, structures and reserves. It is difficult to imagine the existence of such a contingent.

I don’t think the US will abandon NATO. But it wants to get the Europeans to support the American soldiers on their territory, that is, to finance them. During the election campaign, Trump repeatedly said that NATO member states should increase defense spending to 5% of their gross domestic product and called on European countries to take greater responsibility for supporting Ukraine. He did not change this view after taking office. Trump reminded that the United States spent $200 billion more on aid to Kiev than all of Europe combined. “It’s ridiculous. It concerns them more. We are separated by an ocean,” said the new American president, referring to Europe. Perhaps Europe will succeed in this. After all, during the Cold War, European countries spent 10% of their gross domestic product on defense.

However, the real situation today, if we look at the situation on the ground, Ukraine has not surrendered, but has sunk significantly. The picture on the battlefield is also sad for Kiev. In 2024, the Russian army occupied 6 times more Ukrainian territory than in 2023. Now, given that all officials responsible for providing military assistance to Ukraine in the Pentagon have been fired or transferred to other jobs, and the State Department has suspended aid to all countries except Israel and Egypt for 90 days, Ukraine's defeat may accelerate. Trump will be wary of allowing such a disastrous outcome. Ukraine will sign a peace treaty from a weak position, which will lead to the division of the country and the establishment of a puppet government. So far, neither Moscow nor Kiev have agreed to stop and freeze the war from where it started. Russia 's avoidance of peace talks means that Trump will promise to support Ukraine with weapons and money. But even in this scenario, Russia's territorial gains are unlikely to decrease. Whether Ukraine wins or loses, ultimately, will be determined not by territorial issues, but by whose sphere of influence the country will fall after the final outcome. One thing to remember is that unless Putin suddenly dies, Moscow will never return Crimea and the four regions it annexed and included in the Constitution as its territory to Ukraine.

Abduvali Soyibnazarov, political commentator