What awaits Syria? Three scenarios of the development of events

After the overthrow of Bashar Assad's regime in Syria, the future of the country remains uncertain. Experts are considering three main scenarios for the development of the situation

1. United Syria

The leading groups in the country reach a mutual agreement and strive for stability. The leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Abu Muhammad al-Julani promises to form a government and implement national reconciliation.

Factors that can lead to success: cooperation of all political and ethnic forces. Mutual reconciliation of the opposition.

Challenges: Several armed groups want an independent government. Rebel tribes willing to defy the central government.

According to experts, strong support of regional countries and the international community is necessary for this scenario to be successful.

2. Authoritarian power of HTSh

HTSh consolidates its power and introduces centralized authoritarian rule in the country. This group already has a strong position in Idlib and is establishing itself as an effective administration.

HTSh's repressive policy towards the opposition. Establishing a system of management and stable public services based on Islamic laws.

Reducing the number of wars by centralizing armed groups.

But many groups do not believe that HTSh is prone to autocracy, which could lead to new opposition.

3. Civil war and riots

The worst scenario is that the power vacuum leads to new armed conflicts.

Similar cases, such as the Arab Spring unrest in Libya and Iraq.

Threats to the authorities, such as conflicts between armed groups and the activation of terrorist organizations in the area.

This situation may destabilize not only Syria, but the entire region.

Bashar Assad's regime relied on the support of Iran and Russia, while the opposition was supported by Turkey, the United States and Western countries.

And Israel continues its airstrikes to eliminate any Iranian influence in the country.

Turkey is conducting operations against the Kurds in order to protect its interests.

The international community's policy of support or lifting of sanctions has a great impact on the development of Syria.

The future of Syria depends on internal and external factors. International reconciliation and the support of the international community will be crucial for the stability and development of this country. But the continuation of internal armed conflicts may cause further destabilization of the region.