Is Egypt also facing the same fate as Syria?

The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime last week has caused mixed reactions in Egypt. While the Egyptian people have welcomed the event with joy and hope, the ruling elite are openly worried and fearful. The confrontation reflects the aspirations of the Egyptian people, who want the departure of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who is trying to extend his rule.

Over the past decade, tens of thousands of Sisi's opponents have been held in prisons modeled after Syria's notorious Sednaya prison. Human rights reports have documented hundreds of deaths in custody due to medical neglect and torture.

Cairo's response to events in Syria has been cautious and alarming, expressing concern about the division of Syria and the spread of terrorism. It has also cast doubt on the Sisi regime's reports of torture of Syrians in Assad's prisons.

"If Damascus falls, Cairo must prepare for a decisive battle," warned Mostafa Bakri, a journalist and member of parliament close to the Egyptian government, on the "Facts and Secrets" TV show broadcast on the private satellite channel Sada El-Balad. In an article titled "The Story of Sednaya Prison: Truth or Fiction," he said he regretted Assad's fall and questioned the crimes committed.

Similarly, Amr Adib warned on the MBC Egypt program "Story" that Syria's future could lead to division or the complete collapse of state structures. Ahmed Moussa, another media outlet with ties to Egyptian security agencies, threatened to expel Syrians in Egypt if they celebrate the fall of Assad, and stated that Syria is on the brink of civil war in Sada El-Balad.

In addition to warnings about the Syrian scenario, Egyptian television channels avoided covering the celebrations of Assad's fall. They continued to broadcast entertainment and sports programs as if nothing significant had happened in the Arab country, which has close ties to Egypt.

Security measures were tightened in the area, and authorities prevented Syrians from celebrating. According to the Egyptian Initiative for Individual Rights, a non-governmental organization, 30 Syrians were arrested in 6th of October, a city west of the capital, where the majority of the country's 1.5 million Syrians live and work mainly in trade and industry.

Politically, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement expressing concern over the situation in Syria. Egypt reaffirmed its support for Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity and called on all Syrian parties to prioritize the country's interests. Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Ati recently reiterated his support for the Syrian state, its sovereignty, and the unity and integrity of its territories in a telephone conversation with the former regime's Foreign Minister Bassam Sabbagh. The phone call came just days before the collapse of the Syrian army and the loss of the opportunity to coordinate and accelerate joint assistance with Gulf allies to rescue Assad.

Since the 2013 coup, the Egyptian regime has used the intimidation tactic, embodied in the phrase "so that we don't end up like Syria or Iraq," to justify its authoritarian rule. This tactic was widely used by the current president during his election campaign and in the media to scare Egyptians with the Syrian scenario and encourage them to accept "authoritarianism in exchange for security."

Now, it seems that this propaganda has failed, and this method of intimidation is working against the Al-Sisi regime. The regime fears a renewed hope among the revolutionaries who overthrew the late President Hosni Mubarak on January 25, 2011. The events in Syria reflect Cairo's concerns that such an experiment could be successful and become a model that could be emulated in neighboring countries in the future.

Gamal Sultan, an Egyptian opposition figure living abroad, wrote on Facebook: "One of the biggest fears of the ruling regime in Egypt right now is that the success of the Syrian revolution will dispel their repeated claim that 'Egypt is the army, and if the army falls, the state will disappear.' In Syria, the army has disintegrated, but the state has survived. The living conditions of the people have improved, life has returned to normal, and institutions are functioning normally again. The Syrian revolution has proven that the foundation of the state is not the army, but the people."

The Egyptian president warned again last Sunday during a meeting with army and police leaders: "The decision-makers in Syria are the people of the country, they can either destroy it or rebuild it."

In 2016, al-Sisi announced his support for the Syrian army, stating that it was one of Egypt's priorities. He also led regional efforts in May 2023 to end Assad's international isolation and restore Syria's membership in the Arab League.

In this context, the events in Syria remain worrying and frightening for the Egyptian president, who did not expect the Assad regime to fall so quickly. After all, he stood next to Assad in a group photo of leaders at the Arab-Islamic summit in Riyadh last month.

As security concerns dominate Egypt's position, there is a growing risk of revolutionary waves that could spark mass street protests that could return to Tahrir Square, the symbol of the January 2011 revolution, especially as the 14th anniversary of the revolution approaches.

Political analyst Muhammad al-Sayyid explained that Egypt's concern about the success of the Syrian revolution reflects the position of counter-revolutionary states fighting the Islamists. He said that part of this concern stems from the similarities between the Sednaya prison in Syria and the Badr prison, which is located east of Cairo and has been dubbed "Egypt's Sednaya." There is also concern that the collapse of an army led by someone like Bashar al-Assad could happen in Egypt. There are also fears that the Egyptian army could collapse under popular anger or simply to scapegoat al-Sisi.

In addition to the fear that the Syrian revolution could inspire Egyptians, the situation is further complicated by the growing influence of Turkey in Syria, the collapse of the Syrian army, and the control of the situation there by Islamist groups. These developments do not serve Egypt's national interests and put great pressure on the Al-Sisi regime.

Israel's chief of staff and the head of its Shin Bet internal security service arrived in Cairo last week to discuss the implications of Assad's overthrow and preventive measures with Egyptian officials. This comes amid concerns about renewed uprisings in other countries, including Egypt, according to the Israeli newspaper Maariv.

Meanwhile, there have been positive signals for the Egyptian opposition since the overthrow of Assad. These could translate into practical action, not by repeating the Syrian experience, but by learning from it to reorganize the opposition ranks and agree on a roadmap for national salvation.

A prominent Egyptian opposition figure, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the success of the Syrian revolution has restored hope among supporters of change in the region, especially in Egypt, after years of despair. There are growing calls for the regime in Cairo to urgently implement major reforms to save itself and Egypt from a similar fate.

Egypt's opposition hopes that Assad's fall will lead to real progress in the country and help Egypt avoid a Syria scenario. It will protect the army from any potential confrontation with the Egyptian people and create conditions conducive to a comprehensive national reconciliation.

The Socialist People's Union Party has proposed a "roadmap" to this end. It begins with restoring freedoms, releasing political and religious prisoners, lifting restrictions on political parties and unions, ensuring media freedom and an independent judiciary, and forming a government and parliament that are free from control by the security services and that express the will of the people. It also calls for a return to the 2014 Constitution to ensure term limits and limits on the president's powers.

A former adviser to the Minister of Local Development expressed doubts that the Egyptian regime can learn from the Syrian experience. In a Facebook post, Essam Lala said: "To avoid the fate of Syria, Egypt must establish elected and accountable institutions, establish strict oversight to ensure that laws are enforced without discrimination or bias, eliminate special privileges for any group, and employ qualified professionals without tying them to political or security loyalties... This also requires building a civilian state based on pluralism and the peaceful transfer of power."

Finally, the Egyptian regime may delay improving relations with the new Syrian authorities, but such hesitation may not be wise when it comes to reconciliation with its own people. Positive steps are needed to ease the simmering but still latent anger over the imprisonment of thousands of innocent people, the deterioration of economic and living conditions, and the generals' increasing control over the country's wealth.

Mahmoud Hassan, political analyst