Analysis: What future awaits Gaza?

There are two realities to consider when considering the question, “What does the future of Gaza look like now?” The first is that relying too heavily on the current ceasefire is naive and dangerous.

Second, it is completely insensitive to fail to understand the true human toll of this war. In fact, the true scale is far greater than the tens of thousands of Palestinians killed and/or seriously injured by Israeli forces.

The Israeli pause in the bombing of Gaza is certainly a welcome development. It has provided some relief, some respite for Palestinians, and for some, the opportunity to move north, assess the damage to their bombed neighborhoods, and dig through the rubble to find the bodies of missing family members.

The ceasefire also allowed for the large-scale delivery of food and aid to Gaza and for seriously wounded Palestinians to cross into Egypt for treatment.

This was the good news about the ceasefire. The bad news is that the agreement is weak, with no enforcement mechanism. The original plan, proposed by former President Biden more than six months ago, included three phases, all three of which the parties agreed to from the start.

We are learning from the Israeli press that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been telling his supporters that he will only respect the first phase and will continue bombing once it is over.

It will not withdraw Israeli troops from Gaza, nor will it allow a Palestinian government that would politically link the Gaza Strip to the West Bank.

The Biden and Trump administrations chose to ignore Netanyahu's intentions in order to showcase their own "successes."

Biden has supported and defended the Israeli leader since the beginning of the conflict. From October 2023 until he left the White House, Biden and others supported Netanyahu's goals and gave him complete freedom.

Despite Biden's insistence that he has been working diligently for a ceasefire for six months, there is clear evidence that the administration knew that Netanyahu would not agree to a ceasefire and yet continued to openly claim that Israel supported the ceasefire and that Hamas was the main obstacle.

This false narrative about the agreement continues to be emphasized because, even though Biden knows that the ceasefire is limited in time, he has achieved a "PR victory" in ending his term in office in an exemplary manner.

The break was much the same for new President Donald Trump - it was an early demonstration of his ability to solve a problem that plagued his predecessor.

It doesn't matter that the ceasefire won't last more than a few months. As always, showman Trump is all about the show right now: boosting ratings. Even if the ceasefire doesn't last long in the future, he won't care, most people will have forgotten about it. Moreover, he recently met with Netanyahu, according to whom new issues were discussed regarding Gaza. The goal is to continue the occupation.

It should not be forgotten that neither the current Israeli government nor any of its potential successors, nor the Trump administration nor any of its potential successors, are interested in a just resolution of the conflict.

So, even leaving aside the issue of a ceasefire, it is clear that despite plans to pave the way for peace, starting with a transitional government in Gaza, the Israelis have not agreed to any agreement. Nor is the US forcing Israel to take the steps necessary to advance peace.

The sad truth is that wars have long-lasting effects long after the bombs have stopped falling. They can lie dormant, like a virus, for years before they manifest themselves, often unexpectedly.

Because neither the Israelis nor their American backers have ever understood the humanity of the Palestinians, they cannot imagine the long-term impact of this devastating war.

Of these, 47,000 were killed, 116,000 were injured, 33,000 were left permanently disabled, about 50,000 went missing, 90 percent of the population (almost 1.9 million) was forced to flee, most of them homeless due to the destruction of their previous homes, and 34,000 children became the only surviving orphans in their families.

It is becoming clear that it could take two decades to clear the rubble and unexploded ordnance in Gaza, and then several more years to rebuild. But the wounds of war that continue to plague survivors will take much longer.

It's easy to press the button to stop the bombs, but this devastating war will continue to affect generations to come. Several types of psychological disorders, such as trauma, anxiety, severe depression, and domestic violence, have emerged, leading to self-harm or attacks on others.

Adding to this suffering is the devastation of seeing their homes and communities in ruins. Where will the Palestinians go in this situation, with decades of cleanup and rebuilding to come? It is unlikely that the Israelis will show any mercy to these survivors of their war of extermination.

The Palestinians rightly fear that if they leave the ruins of Palestine, the Israelis will not let them return. Neither the US nor the Israelis are capable of providing the victim community with the counseling and care needed to heal the wounds of this war. So the future is vague, like a thick fog.