What will happen if Russia wins in Ukraine?
What happens if Russia wins in Ukraine ? Who is the next " prey " ?
The next march of " White Bear " to Europe, Central Asia?
These days, the total of the US and the European Union is in the world press Against the background of reports that there is no rush to allocate more than 100 billion dollars in new aid , information is emerging that Ukraine will be defeated by Russia by 2024 . There are even speculations about who will be the next " prey " of President Vladimir Putin . In fact, it is too early to draw conclusions . But if Russia gains the upper hand in the war , the " white bear" will not stop. Appetite opens. Today, Europe and the United States fell into the trap of self-imposed sanctions. Russia 's economy, thanks to the rush , has suddenly moved to the path of growth, and has even become the fifth largest economy in the world. Not to mention, Russia owns $12 trillion worth of real estate in the occupied territories of Ukraine - A roof also acquired power stations, hydroelectric power stations, large and small factories, enterprises . He even cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea and Azov, Kechr Strait, and turned it almost into a landlocked country. Note that the Russian F ederation first invaded Ukraine's coastal areas of the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait. The turn may come to Odessa on the shores of the Black Sea . If this region is conquered, it will be able to reach the rebel republic of Moldova on the Transnistria by land. The defeat of Russia in the war means its disintegration. The defeat of Ukraine will disintegrate Ukraine, and the creation of Novorossiya on its territory will allow the restoration of Russia's superpower status. As the famous American political scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote in his book "The Great Checkmate Board " : "Russia cannot become a Eurasian empire without Ukraine. Russia can compete for imperial status without Ukraine, but it will then essentially become an Asian imperial power and most likely become embroiled in debilitating conflicts with emerging Central Asia. If it came to pass, he would regret losing his power.'' In addition, there is an idea that whoever rules the Eurasian continent rules the whole world. That is, it is clearly stated here what role the US plays, which chess pieces it communicates with, and what policy it pursues against its enemies in the region. Zbigniew Brzezinski describes the Eurasian continent as the most strategically important region in the world. This region is so vast that one country cannot control it. The borders of Eurasia are huge, and the country with the largest territory on this continent is Russia. America's goal is to destroy Russia. That is why he bet a lot on Kiev in the Russian - Ukrainian conflict. But the plan to return Ukraine to its original state still does not leave the minds of Russian politicians. Ukraine's independence would also deprive Russia of its priority position in the Black Sea . That is why Putin, who dreams of building a great Russian state, started an invasion of Ukraine. Brzezinski: "The United States should cooperate closely with Ukraine in Northern Europe, Azerbaijan in the Caucasus, and Uzbekistan in Central Asia. Because these countries will make more efforts to conduct geopolitics independent of Russia," he puts forward the idea. This situation gives the impression that it is sending a signal to Russia. As a result, Russia helped return Karabakh to Baku in order to focus on Azerbaijan and strain its relations with the West. And the help was to look the other way in the war and not to give modern weapons to Armenia. It also disabled S-300 anti-aircraft missiles in Karabakh. However, some politicians believe that Russia's policy aimed at reconciliation between Azerbaijan and Armenia has deteriorated. Now, Armenia is getting closer not with Russia, but with Western countries. That is, Russia's position in the Caucasus has also decreased. Now there are views that the attention to the key countries in Central Asia will become stronger. In fact, did not Russia deploy troops in Shusha? Azerbaijan also agrees to the stay of Russian troops in the region. There are only 70 unarmed Turkish soldiers in Shusha. There are 2,500 Russian troops, bringing radar equipment to Shusha to control at least the entire Middle East and the Persian Gulf.
Uzbekistan cannot stay away from Russia either. The largest trading partner and the largest investor is Russia. Moreover, Moscow, which started supplying natural gas, connected Tashkent in every way. Kazakhstan is the largest economy in Central Asia, rich in natural energy reserves and the only country in the region bordering Russia. The length of the borders is 75 thousand square kilometers. Against the background of the Kremlin's growing imperialist ambitions in recent years, it is clear that Kazakhstan is one of the countries that Putin and other famous Russian politicians mention the most. In addition, Kazakhstan is a post-Soviet state whose statehood has been repeatedly questioned by Russia . Astana's opposition to Russia's position on the independence and annexation of Ukraine, its separatist and occupied territories, fueled the ongoing battle between the two. But I think these performances are superficial. In all his speeches, President Kasim-Jomart Tokaev recognizes the Russian Federation as his closest ally, strategic partner, and a country without which the world's problems cannot be solved. In the landscape of mass demonstrations that turned into riots in 2022, Kazakhstan will be the first and for the last time in the history of the Collective Security Treaty Organization to use its military contingent, sending peacekeeping forces there at the request of President Kasim-Jomart Tokaev.
The President of Kazakhstan stated that they are not afraid of Russia's territorial claims. Kasim-Jomart Tokayev said that the border between Kazakhstan and Russia was delimited and demarcated on time, which was approved and ratified by the parliaments of the two countries. "Therefore, we have no concerns about Russia's territorial claims," the Kazakh president said. Kasim-Jomart Toqaev said that they will continue regular friendly relations with Russia on a bilateral basis, as well as within the framework of relevant integration associations.
As Boya noted, Eurasia is a huge area and it cannot be managed by one actor. Therefore, Russia and China reached an agreement in order to maintain their influence in the region and prevent the USA and Europe from gaining supremacy. In addition, in their joint statement, they noted that they are "ready to strengthen mutual coordination of support in ensuring the sovereignty and national development of Central Asia." They also stressed that they would not accept "attempts to import color revolutions" and foreign interference in the affairs of the region.
Historically, Central Asia has been the center of interest of empires. This will continue in the future. Especially now it is getting stronger. In my opinion, in this situation, an opportunity is emerging for the Central Asian countries along with a danger. That is, the conditions for the integration of the Central Asian countries are emerging. But for now, they cannot use this opportunity. Although Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are allies, there is serious competition. There are frequent quarrels between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The Russian claw is still strong. If the war in Ukraine ends with the victory of the Russians, in the initial stage, the "white bear" will forcibly join other former Soviet republics to the union of Russia and Belarus. After gaining strength, they begin to annex them as autonomy. This can be understood from the statements made by Russian chauvinist politicians today.
Frankly, a Russian victory in Ukraine will be felt around the world, as US partners and allies may begin to question the credibility of Washington's defense promises. Officials in the Baltic states are urging the public to prepare for the next war due to the possibility that Russian military forces will not be defeated in Ukraine. Despite US President Joe Biden's reassuring statements, questions are growing about whether the US and other allies will really put their troops at risk to defend the former Soviet Union. In addition, the possibility that Donald Trump will win next year's presidential election and fulfill his public promises to withdraw from major alliances, including NATO, and to reach a deal with Putin on Ukraine is not yet taken into account. A Russian victory would trigger a flood of refugees heading to the EU, putting pressure on social services in those countries and deepening tensions between EU members. With Russian troops potentially much closer to the borders of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, and Crimea giving the Kremlin a dominant position in the Black Sea, the US will need to invest heavily in its European forces to create a credible deterrent.
If Vladimir Putin succeeds in the war, it may be the turn of the Baltic states. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia are NATO members neighboring Russia. The Russian president is not limited to conventional war. Cyber attacks or disinformation campaigns against the West are often blamed on Moscow. All other NATO members, including nuclear powers the United States, Great Britain and France, can help them. But there are no guarantees , and ultimately it is up to each country to respond . Naturally, this makes countries bordering Russia, such as Latvia, where there are many ethnic Russians, nervous. Daugavpils, the second city of Latvia, is located 25 kilometers from Belarus and 120 kilometers from Russia. Eight out of ten people living there speak Russian in their families. Most of them studied in schools specializing in the Russian language in Latvia. They traditionally get their news from Russian TV, radio or news sites. Latvia is concerned that Vladimir Putin may be trying to allegedly "save" ethnic Russians here. Because this was one of the pretexts for Russian armed groups to take over a part of the Donbass region near the Russian border in 2014. The Latvian government banned Russian TV channels in an attempt to cut ethnic Russians off from Russian propaganda. He also put an end to education in the Russian language. Monuments from the Soviet era were demolished . But Latvia has some very painful fine lines. The new policy aims to improve the integration of ethnic Russians, but critics say it is an attempt to force citizens to accept the government's pro-Western views. They warn that this will alienate many ethnic Russians and even make them sympathetic to Vladimir Putin.
In conclusion, it can be said that everything was left at the end of the war. If Russia wins and conquers Ukraine, it will add strength to its power. If he wants, he will enter the Baltic region under the pretext of protecting the Russians. Or they will begin to establish rule in the Caucasus and Central Asia. And now there is a lack of human resources to carry out these works.
