What are the consequences of the killing of Ismail Haniya, the leader of the Palestinian Hamas movement, for the region? Will Iran and its allies go to war against Israel?

***

Since the events of October 7, 2023, there have been many comments and rumors about the risk of the war in the Gaza Strip spreading to the entire Middle East region.

However, the incident that took place in the city of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights on July 27 indicates that the war in Gaza has entered a new phase.

Taking advantage of this incident, Israel launched an airstrike on Beirut to kill Fuad Shukr, the leader of Hezbollah , and 12 hours later killed Ismail Haniya in Tehran, who attended the swearing-in ceremony of Iranian President Massoud Pezeshki in the capital of Iran. increases confidence in further spread.

On July 27, a rocket landed in the city of Majdal Shams, north of the Golan Heights. The projectile landed on the artificial football field. 12 people, including children, died in the incident . Israel blamed the Lebanese Hezbollah movement for the incident.

Despite the success of the propaganda campaign surrounding the incident, Israel has made the attack a key tool to "regionalize" the war in Gaza.

Despite its declarations of intention to launch a large-scale offensive against Hezbollah, Israel admits that it is impossible to fight the group . Because it is much stronger today than it was during the 2006 war. Based on this, Israel decided to launch an air attack on Beirut instead of a ground operation. In order to complicate the situation, he immediately launched a similar attack in Tehran.

It can be argued that the decision to carry out these attacks was made around three goals.

First, Israel seems intent on not confronting Hezbollah alone, which has transformed itself from a non-state actor into a regular army , and to draw in the US and other allies in the wake of Hezbollah's retaliatory strikes. Israel knows very well that if it had to fight Hezbollah alone, even after it has wreaked havoc in Lebanon, it would have serious problems for its existence and would be very difficult to counter.

Had Israel been confident of victory over Hezbollah, it would have already launched a ground operation. But the current situation reflects Israel's fear of Hezbollah's power , its belief that it can solve this "problem" through an extended war with its allies.

Secondly, Israel sees these killings as a way out of the current situation, because despite all the massacres it has committed in the Gaza Strip, it understands that it cannot break the Palestinian resistance forces . In doing so, he plans to cap military success in Gaza with a wider regional war or neutralize Hamas' ground power by weakening it at the command level.

Thirdly, Israel is trying to prevent the natural growth of the "axis of resistance".

Possible scenarios of the development of events after the above-mentioned murders can be listed in three points.

First, this process can turn into an extended war. Even if we exclude the possibility that it will turn into a direct regional war, the possibility of a "semi-regional war" is almost on the threshold . Although Iran prefers not to be directly involved in the war, it is safe to say that pro-Iranian groups, particularly Hezbollah and the Houthis (Ansarullah), will increase their involvement in the escalating conflict. Escalation is directed towards the central areas of Israel around Haifa and Tel Aviv, and in contrast to the recent killings in Israel , strengthening air and sea operations leads to i .

The second scenario is to bypass existing contention rules through medium-scale attacks. An example of Iran's attack on Israel with missiles and drones in April .

A third scenario involves Iran and Hezbollah continuing to follow the rules of their previous engagement to avoid further escalation , which also seems highly unlikely.

Thus, we can come to the conclusion that " the brick has moved out of the mold " not only in the situation of the war in Gaza, but also in the regional situation.

However, it will be difficult to predict the reaction of the parties to the events to what extent and for how long.

Dr. Talha Ismail Duman is a researcher at the Middle East Institute of Sakarya University , Turkey . Conducts research on Islamic movements in the Middle East and Lebanon.

Source: " Anatolia " AA